The Internal Bar Strength indicator (IBS) has worked remarkably well for over two decades. We can only guess why, but the stock market has been highly mean-reverting during this period, and this has, of course, given the IBS a nice tailwind.
IBS is simply an indicator where you buy on weakness and sell on strength, the cornerstone of any mean-reverting strategy. It oscillates from zero to one and measures the relative position of the closing price relative to the High and Low. A low internal bar strength value is supposed to be bullish, and a high value is bearish (for the short-term). The assumption is that the market is mean-reverting. We make some examples of internal bar strength strategies.
This article explains the Internal Bar Strength Indicator and internal bar strength strategy. We test it empirically (backtest) and explain which markets you will most likely succeed in.
The conclusion is that the Internal Bar Strength Indicator has worked remarkably well over the last 30 years on stocks and stock indices, less so on other asset classes. Last, we backtest some trading strategies based on the IBS indicator.
Is this likely to continue? The indicator made a spectacular comeback in and after produced the first negative return in this century. The increased volatility following the unprecedented Covid lockdowns has made the best year on record.
If you find this article useful, you might want to have a look at our landing pages for a lot of other trading strategies and edges:
The formula for IBS is as follows:
(Close-Low)/(High-Low)
Lets illustrate with an example from the 28th of October SPY, the ETF of the S&P , had a high of , a low of , and closed at Thus, the IBS that day would be calculated like this:
( )/( ) =
This was a bad day for stocks, where SPY opened significantly down and continued falling throughout the day. The low value of the IBS indicates a good setup for a mean reversion trade. As it turned out, the next day, the 29th of October, ended as a positive day.
We present three different IBS strategies in this video.
Many financial commentators have written about the coming demise and reduced strength of the IBS, recently as late as , after many months of weak performance. As with most things in the financial markets, all good things must come to an end, and IBS performed poorly in and
IBS is a very simplistic indicator and widely used by algos, perhaps indicating the good times are over. The markets are flooded with capital, brains, and computing power, and the most popular indicators and strategies will be “arbed” away when they get widely used.
On this blog we have several times used IBS together with other indicators. However, I have never looked at IBS solely on its own, and this article has a short look at how IBS has performed on the S&P and Nasdaq. Lets backtest an IBS strategy:
Let’s first start with the S&P by using the ETF SPY. The criteria are simple (using Amibroker). We make the following trading rules:
Despite its simplicity, it has yielded excellent results from SPYs inception in until today (assuming invested in and % exposure of equity since then i.e. compounded results):
#Trades | |
Average gain per trade | % |
Win-ratio | 68% |
CAGR annual returns | % (buy and hold %) |
Average gain winners | % |
Average loss losers | % |
Profit factor | |
Max % drawdown | % |
The equity curve looks like this (compounded):
Even though slippage and commissions are not included (which are very low, by the way, for such a liquid instrument), there were so far only three losing years: , , and
The IBS has worked even better on Nasdaq (QQQ compounded since inception until today):
The trades returned % per trade and compounded at % significantly better than buy and holds 9%.
Lets change the IBS strategy somewhat but still use the IBS as the only indicator for both the entry and the exit, and we get the following equity curve from until today for SPY:
The strategy produced a CAGR of % while being invested only 36% of the time. There are trades, the average trade lasts trading days, the win rate is 74%, the average win is %, the average loser is %, the max drawdown is 22%, the profit factor is , and the Sharpe Ratio is
Would you like to know the code and the criteria? You get the code for Amibroker/Tradestation and in plain English. You can order the strategy by clicking the links below or become a member. You can order the strategy on this link (IBS Strategy no. 2):
BUY NOW
When you have paid, please press the link below to access the code (PDF file):
Download the IBS strategy no.2 by clicking here (you need to pay for access)
OR
You can become a member. We present similar ideas monthly please subscribe to our Trading Edges
Perhaps ironically, the strategy seems to perform the best in bear markets. The reason is most likely that the biggest up days happen in bear markets.
Yes, you heard it right: the biggest up days happen during bear markets, perhaps contrary to common sense. You can read more in our blog post about the anatomy of a bear market.
For example, from the top in May to the bottom in early March (the GFC), S&P lost about 50% of its value, but there were 99 up days and down days during this period. During the same period, it was 51 days with daily rises (from close to close) higher than 1% and 30 days with daily rises above 2%. You can read more about these data in this article.
We suspect that short covering is one of the main reasons we see these enormous spikes during bear markets. Bear markets are shorter in duration than bull markets, and increased uncertainty makes the markets much more volatile. Bull markets are sedate: the daily volatility is significantly lower.
Does adding a filter only to take signals during volatile times pay off?
We can, for example, add a volatility filter like VIX: buy only when VIX closes above a moving average of x days. If we use a VIX filter where we require VIX to close above its day average, the average gain per trade in SPY increases from % to % while the profit factor goes from to (for SPY).
However, be careful adding this filter because an optimization reveals the result is pretty variable from even small changes in the number of days of the moving average.
By tweaking a little, it seems the IBS works best as long its not too overbought compared to the day moving average. If the close of SPY is max 5% above the day moving average, it improves the result the best:
The average gain is % and the profit factor is However, be careful as the risk of curve fitting is high. However, it shows that you can employ the IBS indicator systematically and successfully.
The numbers below show how you improve the results by combining two indicators in a twist to the trading strategies we did above. This table illustrates the results for SPY since its inception:
#Trades | |
Average gain per trade | % |
Win-ratio | 78% |
#days per trade | |
Average gain winners | % |
Average loss losers | % |
Profit factor | 2. |
Max % drawdown | % |
For QQQ (since inception) the results are much better:
#Trades | |
Average gain per trade | % |
Win-ratio | 75% |
#days per trade | |
Average gain winners | % |
Average loss losers | % |
Profit factor | |
Max % drawdown | % |
The equity curve compounded for QQQ looks impressive (logarithmic chart):
The overlap in trades between SPY and QQQ is of course very high and thus it doesnt make sense to trade both, in our opinion.
Would you like to know the code and the criteria? You can order the strategy by clicking here or by becoming a member.
You can order the strategy on this link (please choose IBS + second indicator product you get the code in Amibroker/Tradestation and plain English):
BUY NOW
When you have paid, please press the link below to access the code (PDF file):
Download the IBS + second indicator strategy by clicking here (you need to pay for access)
OR
Alternatively, you can become a member and we send out ideas like this monthly for a much lower fee per edge.
Unfortunately, it doesnt. The IBS more or less only works on single stocks and stock indices. Furthermore, it works best on indices that have a broad selection of different industries. It is a mean reversion strategy.
Some parts of the stock population produce poor returns using the IBS: commodity stocks for example.
Hence, IBS doesnt work well on Norwegian and Australian stocks/indices, as both countries depend heavily on commodity prices. Likewise, you will be hugely disappointed if you try IBS on gold and metal stocks. It simply doesnt work.
Does this mean we should skip the indicator, assuming a robust indicator should work on all asset classes?
No. Its naive to believe that any indicator works on all asset classes. Every market has its own rules and ecology where you, as a trader, must adapt to the current and local environment.
Just as a Norwegian investor cant expect to find the same temperament and mentality in Nigeria as in Norway, you, as a trader, must adapt to the market you are trading in. There are no universal rules across the asset classes. This is not curve fitting.
Thats perhaps disappointing to many, but on the other hand, it serves you opportunities if you are willing to adapt and do proper research.
One weakness of the strategy is the need to enter on the close. Obviously, you dont know the close until after the fact, meaning you need to enter just seconds before or after the close in the after hours. This is a hassle unless you trade automatic systems via your computer or VPS. We solve this by entering just a few seconds before the close.
The importance of getting the closing price is paramount. If you delay the execution to the open the day after the signal, the return falls significantly: for S&P the average gain per trade falls from % to %. All important parameters worsen, also for QQQ.
The IBS indicator still seems to work pretty well. However, it performs best under conditions where uncertainty makes the stock markets volatile. Furthermore, its one of the easiest formulas to compute.
We use IBS in our own swing trading, but always together with some other indicator or factors.
Furthermore, dont expect the indicator to work in any market: it only works on stocks in certain industries and stock indices with a broad base of different sectors/industries.
We believe you can develop a profitable IBS strategy if you use some of the hints in this article.
We are not oracles, and we are sure some traders can improve the strategy. Do you have any ideas on how to improve it?
If so, drop us an e-mail.
$
USD
United States' dollar
greenback (.)
buck (.)
(.)
, . XXVII Leeuwendaalders Liondollars, Taler.
FRB ,8 . 6,6% .
%b
. :
%D
slow line
, %K .
%F
forecast oscillator
, (actual) (forecast). O
%F = ((Yactual Yforecast)/Yactual) �
%K
fast line
, ( ) .
%R
Percent R
Williams' %R
. . .
. . 0 , . .
. .
, ( 20% 80%), .
, .
. , , .
. .
_______________
(A)
advance
.
(F)
final
.
(P)
preliminary
provisional
.
(R)
revised
.
3 Month LIBOR
.
3LPB
TLB
three-line (price) break
three-step reversal chart
three-step new price
, , Close. .
. .
, , . , ( ) ( ).
, High Low . .
, . , . , .
A
_____________________________________
A
A/C
account
.
a.m.
AM
Ante Meridiem (.). .
A/C
A
account
.
A0-FX
Forex, eSignal.
ISO (EURUSD EUR A0-FX), - ISO (EURJPY A0-FX).
Abandoned baby
, . , , .
Absolute price oscillator
APO
, . . , .
_______________
Accelerator/decelerator oscillator
AC
/
. .
. . .
. , , . , , .
. �� ��, .
. �� .
_______________
Account
A
A/C
.
Account statement
.
ACI
Association Cambiste Internationale
The Financial Markets Association
, � � . .
Active account
,
Adam and Eve
.
� �.
Adaptive filter
/ .
Adaptive Moving Average
AMA
VMA
Variable Moving Average
, . , . AMA KAMA, VIDYA, JMA .
Adaptive stochastic oscillator
ASO
. . .
. , , . , . . 7 28 . .
. , ( 20% 80%), .
, . . , .
. . .
. , , .
_______________
Adaptive Trend and Cycles Following Method
ATCF
, . .
(FATL, SATL) (RFTL, RSTL) .
Advance
(A)
.
Advisor
expert advisor
, . / . , .
Advisory service
/ .
ADX
average directional index
. . -. .
. ADX . , .
DX=x(+DI--DI)/(+DI+-DI),
.
. ( 20) , 20 ( , ). 40 .
. .
. .
_______________
ADXR
average directional movement rating
ADX . ADX n .
Affinity
, / .
Alligator
(.)
, .
. (, , ). ( ). , ( ).
. , . Gator.
. , , Awesome Oscillator Accelerator. .
AM
a.m.
Ante Meridiem (.).
AMA
Adaptive Moving Average
VMA
Variable Moving Average
, . , . AMA KAMA, VIDYA, JMA .
Andrews' Pitchfork
. (Alan H. Andrews).
. (A) (B). A B . (C). AB , A B .
. .
( ) . ( ) .
Annual
yearly
.
Anonimous trading
, , . , .
Antimartingale
.
AO
awesome oscillator
. .
. / .
APO
absolute price oscillator
, . . , .
_______________
Appreciation
, .
Arb
arbs
arbitrager
arbitragist
, .
Arbitrage
, - .
Arbitrage house
, .
Arbitrager
arbitragist
,
Arb
arbs
,
ARIMA
AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average
. . ... (G.E.P. Box) .. (G.M. Jenkins). -.
ARIMA .
ARIMA . , , . ARIMA, .
Arithmetic scaling
linear scaling
Aroon
.
. . .
. . :
Aroon(up)=(W-Nmax)/W*%
Aroon(down)=(W-Nmin)/W*%
W , Nmax Nmin .
Aroon AroonOsc=Aroon(up)-Aroon(down). Aroon(up) Aroon(down) 0 +, AroonOsc + .
. Aroon(up) Aroon(down) , . Aroon(up) 50, , . , Aroon(down) 50, . 75 .
_______________
Ascending trend
uptrend
bull
, , .
Asian dollars
Ask (price)
offer (price)
(.)
, (o ).
ASO
adaptive stochastic oscillator
. . .
. , , . , . . 7 28 . .
. , ( 20% 80%), .
, . . , .
. . .
. , , .
_______________
Association Cambiste Internationale
ACI
The Financial Markets Association
, � � . . .
ATCF
Adaptive Trend and Cycles Following Method
, . .
(FATL, SATL) (RFTL, RSTL) .
Atlanta Fed Index
(). . . .
EST. , (ISM index).
ATR
average true range
. . . -.
. SMA, EMA .
. .
, . ATR , , , .
. .
. ATR , , .
_______________
AUD
Australian dollar
aussie (.)
(.)
.
AUD/USD
AUDUSD
, . .
AUD/USD
( )
Australian dollar
Aussie (.)
AUD
(.)
.
Authorized dealer
, , .
Autocorrelation
serial correlation
X(t) t1 t2. , , .
, L : x1, x2, x3, x1+L, x2+L, x3+L, L .
Autoregression
.
AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average
ARIMA
. . ... (G.E.P. Box) .. (G.M. Jenkins). -.
ARIMA .
ARIMA . , , . ARIMA, .
Average buy/sell
, . . , .
, .
Average directional index
ADX
. . -. .
. ADX . , .
DX=x(+DI--DI)/(+DI+-DI),
.
. ( 20) , 20 ( , ). 40 .
. .
. .
_______________
Average directional movement rating
ADXR
ADX . ADX n .
Average Earnings Growth
().
. ( , , ��). , , , . , BOE . . .
Average Hourly Earnings
().
. , . . . , , EST Nonfarm payrolls.
Average true range
ATR
. . . -.
. SMA, EMA .
. .
, . ATR , , , .
. .
. ATR , , .
Average Workweek
().
, . , , EST Nonfarm payrolls. . .
Awesome oscillator
AO
. .
. / .
Last edited by Oleg eunic-brussels.eu; at AM.
B
_____________________________________
B
bn
billion
MM
mega million
, 1
B&A (bid and asked)
.
B/D
BD
broker-dealer
-
, .
Back office
-
, .
Backtesting
.
Balance line
, . , :
�c ( ) � 13 , 8 ;
� ( ) � 8 , 5 ;
� ( ) � 5 , 3 .
Balance of Payments
, , - , , (). ( ) .
. .
Balance of Power
BOP
. . .
. �� �� . (C-O)/(H-L). .
. , , .
. . , .
. .
______________
Banded oscillators
, (, RSI). .
Bar
() . : Open (), High (), Low () Close () OHLC.
.
_______High (.)
Open (.)Close (.)
_______Low (.)
Bar chart
,
Bar code
.
Barrier option
trigger option
. (Knock In) (Knock Out) .
Base currency
primary currency
, ( ) � ��, .. . .
Base Line
Kidjun-sen
-
.
Base rate ()
prime rate
prime ()
, .
.
Basis
1. , , .
2. .
Basis point
..
. .
BB
Bollinger Bands
.
. . .
.
аналитика форекс gbp кaртa мирa форекс вспомогательные индикаторы форекс как платят налоги трейдеры валютного рынка форекс лучшие индикаторы для входа индикаторы измерения температуры щитовые дмитрий котенко форекс клипaрт для форекс имхо на форексе дц форекс брокер отзывы безрисковая комбинация форекс индикаторы рынка ферросплавов